NCAA Survivor - 1/11/06
This is why I will never work a 9-5 job. I can't sleep tonight. So I'll reward you with an NCAA survivor update, even though Bracketology just came out and, if you're anything like me, your brain should still be humming nicely in that wake.
A lot has happened in the two weeks since my last installment. As conference season begins, teams are free-falling left and right. The tricky part about judging NCAA teams is that even championship teams go through valleys, especially in these days of increased parity. We look for sure things but find none; instead we are left with The Three Pointless If's:
If you're in a major conference, you're going to lose a couple games.
If you lose a couple games, you can still win the championship.
If you're not in a top conference, you may not lose a couple games, but your chance to prove yourself has come and gone, so come March, no one will be quite sure how much you've improved, if at all.
So how do we eliminate teams? By the next time I post, we'll start to see which teams rally from their free-fall, a good sign of quality (Texas has turned things around since getting booted last time). But for now, I'm going to take a look at talent in the current field of 20 from last time:
Top Two Tiers
Duke
SU
UConn
Gonzaga
Michigan St
Villanova
Louisville
Memphis
Illinois
Washington
------
Oklahoma
Maryland
Florida
West Virginia
UNC (in some sort of odd metamorphosis of the Ewing Theory)
Kensucky
Pitt
Ohio State (Thad Matta Factor)
Wake
BC
Talent is an obvious pre-requisite, if a subjective one. But I'm not Joe Lunardi or Superman. I'm only human, so I'll just do my best.
Kensucky (10-5): Classic bracket mistake is picking a team that was a surprise last year simply because they were a surprise last year. You glance at Kensucky's box score..."Ooh! Sparks! Rondo! Morris! I recognize those names, therefore I will pick Kensucky!" The Wildcats are solid, but championship caliber? Sparks? Please. See ya, Tubby.
B.C. (11-4): I'm a little skewed with BC because I know these guys: Smith, Dudley, Hinnant. Smith is a beast. He's good enough to carry BC on a nice run in the tourney. But if there is one thing we all know about championship teams, it's that they all have at least one brilliant backcourt weapon. I'm glancing at my NCAA archives right now...McCants/Felton, Gordon, McNamara, Dixon, Williams/Dunleavy, Cleeves, El-Amin. BC's main three guards are Hinnant, Marshall, and Rice. Statistically, their best passer is their worst long-range shooter (Hinnant). But you don't need numbers to see that they just don't have it. Bye bye, Skinner.
UConn (13-1): Frightening talent. No surprise, since Calhoun is a renowned dirty recruiter who will give his guys all kinds of breaks as long as they can make baskets. Also, all their fans are evil fat Wall Street retirees. On the bright side, their visit to the dome consistently brings out the most electric crowd of the season, and I get to be there again on Monday. Definitely one of the underrated rivalries in college basketball. The only game of the regular season that features 30,000 fans that are into every single play. (And yes, I'm aware that SU draws 30,000 fans to other games.) Verdict: Final Four bound.
Oklahoma (9-4): Can we just all agree that the Big 12 is overrated? Ever since SU beat half the conference in 2003 they've lost their sparkle, if they ever really had one. Last year they had only 2 teams in the sweet sixteen and both lost. And now Oklahoma has lost both its games against Big East teams (Nova and WV), and both its games against Big 12 teams (Nebraska and Missouri). That's enough right there to toss them out. But I do want to make one point regarding their talent. Their top two scorers are both seniors. What does that tell us? Well, it means that they weren't talented enough to leave early for the NBA. So they're probably not talented enough to win a championship. Talent beats experience, straight up. Adios Kelvin.
So now we're down to 17! Exciting! Below you'll notice I'm starting to sort out the pack a little bit. SU and Ohio State get their own category, the former because I can't fairly evaluate them as long as I think they're in the field, and the latter because it's a special situation featuring the greatest college basketball coach of all time. (You can read about him in last week's Sports Illustrated.)
Cream
Duke
UConn
Top Two Tiers
Gonzaga
Michigan St
Villanova
Louisville
Memphis
Illinois
Washington
Florida
------
Maryland
West Virginia
UNC (in some sort of odd metamorphosis of the Ewing Theory)
Pitt
Wake
The SU Tier
SU
The Thad Matta Tier
Ohio State
As always, if you want to weigh in, suggest teams to add, or argue for teams to drop, do so by writing pa451@yahoo.com.
Next time on NCAA Survivor...
"The Championship Caliber Trio of McNamara, Nichols, and Roberts."
A lot has happened in the two weeks since my last installment. As conference season begins, teams are free-falling left and right. The tricky part about judging NCAA teams is that even championship teams go through valleys, especially in these days of increased parity. We look for sure things but find none; instead we are left with The Three Pointless If's:
If you're in a major conference, you're going to lose a couple games.
If you lose a couple games, you can still win the championship.
If you're not in a top conference, you may not lose a couple games, but your chance to prove yourself has come and gone, so come March, no one will be quite sure how much you've improved, if at all.
So how do we eliminate teams? By the next time I post, we'll start to see which teams rally from their free-fall, a good sign of quality (Texas has turned things around since getting booted last time). But for now, I'm going to take a look at talent in the current field of 20 from last time:
Top Two Tiers
Duke
SU
UConn
Gonzaga
Michigan St
Villanova
Louisville
Memphis
Illinois
Washington
------
Oklahoma
Maryland
Florida
West Virginia
UNC (in some sort of odd metamorphosis of the Ewing Theory)
Kensucky
Pitt
Ohio State (Thad Matta Factor)
Wake
BC
Talent is an obvious pre-requisite, if a subjective one. But I'm not Joe Lunardi or Superman. I'm only human, so I'll just do my best.
Kensucky (10-5): Classic bracket mistake is picking a team that was a surprise last year simply because they were a surprise last year. You glance at Kensucky's box score..."Ooh! Sparks! Rondo! Morris! I recognize those names, therefore I will pick Kensucky!" The Wildcats are solid, but championship caliber? Sparks? Please. See ya, Tubby.
B.C. (11-4): I'm a little skewed with BC because I know these guys: Smith, Dudley, Hinnant. Smith is a beast. He's good enough to carry BC on a nice run in the tourney. But if there is one thing we all know about championship teams, it's that they all have at least one brilliant backcourt weapon. I'm glancing at my NCAA archives right now...McCants/Felton, Gordon, McNamara, Dixon, Williams/Dunleavy, Cleeves, El-Amin. BC's main three guards are Hinnant, Marshall, and Rice. Statistically, their best passer is their worst long-range shooter (Hinnant). But you don't need numbers to see that they just don't have it. Bye bye, Skinner.
UConn (13-1): Frightening talent. No surprise, since Calhoun is a renowned dirty recruiter who will give his guys all kinds of breaks as long as they can make baskets. Also, all their fans are evil fat Wall Street retirees. On the bright side, their visit to the dome consistently brings out the most electric crowd of the season, and I get to be there again on Monday. Definitely one of the underrated rivalries in college basketball. The only game of the regular season that features 30,000 fans that are into every single play. (And yes, I'm aware that SU draws 30,000 fans to other games.) Verdict: Final Four bound.
Oklahoma (9-4): Can we just all agree that the Big 12 is overrated? Ever since SU beat half the conference in 2003 they've lost their sparkle, if they ever really had one. Last year they had only 2 teams in the sweet sixteen and both lost. And now Oklahoma has lost both its games against Big East teams (Nova and WV), and both its games against Big 12 teams (Nebraska and Missouri). That's enough right there to toss them out. But I do want to make one point regarding their talent. Their top two scorers are both seniors. What does that tell us? Well, it means that they weren't talented enough to leave early for the NBA. So they're probably not talented enough to win a championship. Talent beats experience, straight up. Adios Kelvin.
So now we're down to 17! Exciting! Below you'll notice I'm starting to sort out the pack a little bit. SU and Ohio State get their own category, the former because I can't fairly evaluate them as long as I think they're in the field, and the latter because it's a special situation featuring the greatest college basketball coach of all time. (You can read about him in last week's Sports Illustrated.)
Cream
Duke
UConn
Top Two Tiers
Gonzaga
Michigan St
Villanova
Louisville
Memphis
Illinois
Washington
Florida
------
Maryland
West Virginia
UNC (in some sort of odd metamorphosis of the Ewing Theory)
Pitt
Wake
The SU Tier
SU
The Thad Matta Tier
Ohio State
As always, if you want to weigh in, suggest teams to add, or argue for teams to drop, do so by writing pa451@yahoo.com.
Next time on NCAA Survivor...
"The Championship Caliber Trio of McNamara, Nichols, and Roberts."
posted by Prof. A at 3:58 a.m.
3 Comments:
I would like to make an official protest of UNC being on the second tier. I know theyre not the cream but they should be on the 1st of tier. Lets not forget theyre still the champs. You gotta be impressed with the way Noel has become a team leader and Reyshawn Terry has proven himself now that those 4 lottery picks and 3 seniors from last years squad are gone. Tyler Hansbrough has to be the best freshman in the ACC and with Frasor, Miller and Thomas (back from injury) piling up assists and droppin 3's and Ginyard and Green filling in the gaps this is a dynamic, exciting team. Their loss to USC notwithstanding they havent played a really bad game this year. Last nights win over VaTech was close with 25 turnovers but theyre defense held them down. If their offense plays to their potential and theyre defense holds like last night I'd say they have a shot at a repeat. If not this year they have a SEXY recruiting class coming in next year with #1 nationally ranked PG Tywon Lawson and #1 nationally ranked SG Wayne Ellington coming in. Bottom line, I would like to see the champs get some respect. Plus I would also like an explanation of what the "Ewing factor" is and how it applies to the heels. Keep up the good work, I enjoy reading your posts.
Thanks Mr. t!
Ewing Theory
You'll need an insider subscription to read that. If you don't have one, basically the Ewing Theory applies whenever a team loses a star player (injury, graduation, trade, retirement, etc) but then ends up playing better without him.
Everyone expected UNC to fall way off this year, after losing May, Felton, McCants, and Williams. This would be a bizarre application of the Ewing Theory because UNC actually won the championship with those guys last year. If they had lost last year and won this year, it'd be perfect. So I'm taking a lot of liberties.
Let's look at UNC's best wins this year, in order of goodness...
@Kensucky: not looking as good anymore
home to NC St and...
at Va Tech: nice start to ACC
home to Davidson
So let's just see what the ACC regular season does to them. Right around 11pm on February 7 I might be willing to bump them into the top tier.
haha fair enough, i think they can handle the dookies at chapel hill as long as hansbrough and ginyard stay out of foul trouble but mar. 4th may be a whole different ball game. much respect.
-T
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