Thoughts on Duke (While Thinking About the Orange)

Random Thoughts contributing writer Paul Arras made the trip down to the Meadowlands Saturday to watch #1 Duke demolish #2 Texas. One would think he would return filled with confidence in another Coach K title. However, the opposite proved to be true.

Three things became clear to me as I watched JJ Redick become the first player I have ever witnessed in person score 40+ points. One, Duke is the best team in the land right now. Two, the Player of the Year award is JJ's to lose. Three, Syracuse can win the national title.

I'm not saying they will. They have a long way to go. (Fyall believes they have only as long a way as the 2003 team did at the same time in the season.) But put them on a list of 10 to 20 teams that could conceivably peak at the right time and cut down the nets. The NCAA is wide open, and if Duke is the best team, then the best teams aren't that dominant.

Here's how you beat Duke: get Sheldon Williams in foul trouble and hope JJ doesn't get hot. Texas's guards were supposed to be physical and fast enough to shut down JJ, but, obviously, that didn't happen, so I don't really think you can really hope to shut him down. He's gotten good enough off the dribble to create 2-pointers if you're crowding him on the perimeter. Plus, Duke is fantastic at screening for him.

I'll repeat the formula: get Sheldon in foul trouble and hope JJ doesn't get hot. The point is, Duke doesn't have a third option. Sean Dockery is a defender who has worked into a manageable offensive player. Josh McRoberts is too slow. Greg Paulus is passing up shots to feed Sheldon and JJ. Demarcus Nelson is hurt for now and only averaged 6.2 last year anyway. Daniel Ewing is playing for the Clippers.

Honestly? Take away Redick and Sheldon from Duke, and Gerry, Nichols, and Roberts from SU, and I'll take SU. No doubt.

With all that said, Duke is the team to beat right now. But they are beatable. Here's a list of teams that I, with fairly limited knowledge so far, believe could get hot and find victory in early April:

(Top two tiers:)
Duke
SU
UConn
Gonzaga
Michigan St
Villanova
Louisville
BC
Memphis
Oklahoma
Texas
Illinois
Wake
------
Maryland
Washington
Florida
West Virginia
UNC (in some sort of odd metamorphasis of the Ewing Factor)
Kensucky
Pitt

OK that's twenty teams. I'm going to use the "Bill Belichick corollary" to add Ohio State, just because Thad Matta is the greatest coach in the land. I will not even debate this. He is the only coach I would force Boeheim out to get. The man is destined for greatness. That's all I have to say about that.

Twenty-one teams. And because I just thought of this and it seems like a neat way to look at the college basketball season while we wait for Joe Lunardi to update Bracketology, we're going to play NCAA survivor. Each week or so, I'll make a post on why one of those 21 teams can't win the title, and we'll take them off the list. Maybe I'll add some late-bloomers later. Maybe I'll add teams back on if I make a mistake. There's no rules. I do what I want. Just to add to the fun, I'll let you, the reader, e-mail me with suggestions, arguments, or hate-mail on why a team should leave, stay, or be added. Send those comments to pa451@yahoo.com.

Uh oh. Nick Fazekas is on the line. I gotta go.