NCAA Survivor 3/9/06

Wow. I can't believe it's been almost a month since I last updated this. My bad!

I love conference tournaments. I love to point out that March Madness has begun with the first buzzer beater of the first tiny conference championship. Win and keep playing. Lose and go home. Happily today, the Orange have been successful at that game. But don't worry; I'm not putting them back on the list. I was wrong about them. But how about Thad Matta, eh? When I started this column, they weren't even ranked. Now they're smelling a 1-seed. And have I mentioned they've got the top 1 or 2 (depending on who you ask) recruiting class coming in next year? Ohio State...welcome to elite college basketball. Don't underestimate Thad Matta.

When last we met...

Cream
UConn
Duke

The Thad Matta Tier
Ohio State

The Everybody Else Tier
Gonzaga
Michigan St
Villanova
West Virginia
Memphis
Illinois
Florida
Washington
Pitt
Texas


West Virginia
A month ago the Mountaineers were rockin' like a van to which you shouldn't go a-knockin'. Since them they've slipped. I get the feeling they've peaked at the wrong time, don't you? But that's not quite a convincing argument. Let's use this test: could Gansey conceivably be the best player for six tournament games? It's hard but not impossible to imagine.

This is getting tricky. I'm going to have to break things into tiers. West Virginia stays on, but in the lowest tier. I'm almost certainly being affected by a Big East bias... but SU wasn't the best team in the Big East in '03.

Michigan State
These guys cooled way off too, didn't they? But this team is even more talented and better coached than the Mountaineers! I can't take them off if I don't take West Virginia off.

Pittsburgh
Good team. Well-coached. But the talent just isn't there. Carl Krauser is good enough to lead them a ways, but not to a championship. See ya, Pitt.

Illinois
I feel the same way about Dee Brown as I do about Carl Krauser. Not quite great enough. Adios Illini.

North Carolina
Follow me here...Tyler Hansbrough is spectacular as a Freshman. Carmelo Anthony was spectacular as a Freshman. David Noel is a senior who is black and plays good defense. Kueth Duany was very a senior who was black and played very good defense. Josh Pace filled the box score. Many North Carolina players fill the box score!

OK, so the best comparison is the first one. Hansbrough keeps getting better and better. I think he can pull a Melo. Eric...anonymous Tar Heel fan...I finally believe the lads in the sky blue jerseys could win it all.

Washington
Ok, I haven't seen them play. But I just don't think the Pac-10 is any good this year. And Washington didn't even win the conference. If you're in a weak conference, you need to dominate it to be a title contender (see Gonzaga, Memphis). So no Pac-10 teams will have a shot this year.

Florida
Losing to unranked teams all over the place at this point in the year? Plus, Billy Donovan is a terrible coach. I think the Gators are a great pick...to lose in the first round!!! Ohhhh! Ohhhh! You've been played like a fiddle!

Texas
I don't know...I just don't know. I don't think anybody does. Who are these guys? You know what? I'm knocking them off. The problem is Aldridge. He's super-talented, but too inconsistent. He's already thinking about the NBA. Nope. Not Texas.

The Paul's Pick to Win it All Tier
UConn

The Second Most Likely to Win it All Tier
Duke
Villanova

The Thad Matta Tier
Ohio State

The Adam Morrison Goes Bonkers Tier
Gonzaga

The Why Not Us Tier
Memphis

The Carmelo Anthony Memorial Tier
North Carolina

The Only Still Listed Because West Virginia is Still Listed Tier
Michigan State

The Big East Bias Tier
West Virginia


So now nine left. I'll post once more, after the brackets come out. In the meantime, I'll be thinking about those bottom two... Hmmm...