Arrasian Dreams

My obsessive-compulsive need to be in charge of loading and running the dishwasher combined with my strong urge to recycle last night. I dreamt that someone had put a pizza box flat on top of all the other dishes on the lower rack. I scolded the person, explaining that it would block the water from reaching the top shelf. There were three other pizza boxes crammed into the dishwasher. And they were all from different pizzerias, suggesting we'd accumulated them over several days. We were washing them so we could put them out with the recycling.

On the Fourth Day...EA Rested

Day three was not profitable for EA - see 2-5-1 record...with the 1 tie being the BC/Montana game which I forgot to fake bet on. That leaves me a paltry 17-22-1. down 500 dollars after three days...sounds about right.

On the the fourth day:
Pittsburgh (-5) v Bradley - Pitt v Kansas this is not, still should be a tight contest.
Bucknell (+8) v Memphis - Lock of the week much!?
UNC (-5.5) v George Mason - UNC struggled against Murray St, look for a rebound performance i.e. Duke v George Washington yesterday.
UConn (-8.5) v Kentucky - see above bet for reasoning
WVU (-5.5) NW St - WVU with another easy road to the Sweet Sixteen
NC St (+6) v Texas - Julius Hodge must be spinning in his grave. Huh? I don't know.
OSU (-2.5) v G'Town - Lotta black guys in this one.
Nova (-6.5) v Arizona - Dueching all over Wisconsin is not the same as dueching over Nova

Day Three recap
- Picked the Wichita upset, was wrong about pretty much everything else.

Bracket recap - out of three brackets, two are still alive including one with all elite eight teams alive. The downside is that I have to root for Duke and Zaga to make the final four and I hate both teams with a passion. Champ - Ohio State.

Go Heels!

Day Three - Madness continues to ensue

Quick hits -

I realize its halfway through the game but I originally had GW (+9) v Duke
UW -M (+7) v Florida...big upset in the making
Wichita St (+2.5) v Tennesee...notice a pattern developing
Washington (+1.5) v Illiniois
LSU (-5) v Texas A&M
UCLA (-7.5) v Alabama...UCLA looks strong to quite strong.
Indiana (+3.5) v Gonzaga...Zaga should have lost to Xavier Thursday and will lose tonight.

Tourney to date - 15-17 - 200

Last Survivors

Below, you'll find my final short list of teams that can win it all this year, more or less in the order of liklihood they'll win it. I knocked off West Virginia but kept on Michigan St, on a whim.

The Paul's Pick to Win it All Tier
UConn

The Second Most Likely to Win it All Tier
Duke
Villanova

The Thad Matta Tier
Ohio State

The Why Not Us Tier
Memphis

The Carmelo Anthony Memorial Tier
North Carolina

The Adam Morrison Goes Bonkers Tier
Gonzaga

The Tom Izzo Tier
Michigan State


For more of my ideas on the NCAAs, see my new blog. I gots lots of thoughts there.

EA vs Bookies - March Madness Edition

What's better than gambling on every single game of the NCAA tournament? Nothing. But fake gambling on each game through a blog that no one reads anymore is close.

Here is what EA thinks going into the best 4 days of the sports year

Thursday Round 1
Seton Hall (+3) v. Wichita St, Oklahoma (-2.5) v UW-M, BC (-7.5) v Pacific, Marguette (-2.5) v Alabama Please note my theory last year re the Crimson Tide , Tenn (-7) v Winthrop, S Alabama (+8) vs Florida, Nevada (-7) v Montana, UCLA (-19) v Belmont, UNC-W (+3) v GW, LSU (-7.5) v Iona, Xavier (+5.5) v Gonzaga, Air Force (+8.5) v Illinios, Duke (-24) v Southern, Cuse (pick) v Texas A&M, Indiana (-1.5) v San Diego St. Utah St (+6) v Washington

Syracuse is a pick'em?!?! Aren't they a #5 seed playing a #12? This may not end well for the Orange.
I really like the money line of Xavier here as well as Indiana making a run deep into the tourney behind Killingsworth and Mike Davis.

(ed. note - EA went a disappointing 6-10 on Thursday though Indy is still alive and Xavier made a run at Gonzaga...bad beat with Gmac-less Cuse going down. Better luck Friday EA)

Friday Round 1
OSU (-10.5) v Davidson, Iowa (-7) v NW St, Wisconsin (pick) v Arizona, Bucknell (+5.5) v Arkansas, GTown (-3.5) v North Iowa, SIU (+4) v West Va, Memphis (-12.5) v Oral Roberts, Monmouth (+19.5) v Nova, Pitt (-6.5) v Kent st, Mich St (-3.5) v George Mason, NC St (-1.5) v Cal, UConn (-22) v Albany, UNC (-11.5) v Murray St, Bradley (+7) v Kansas, Penn (+14.5) v Texas, Kentucky (-1.5) v UAB

Really like Kentucky in a blowout as well as Georgetown.

EA's Bracketbusters
I have three brackets this year, each different in its own right. Here is what I really think will happen.

First round upsets - Xavier over Gonzaga, SIU over West Virginia, Utah St over Washington

Second round upsets - SIU over Iowa, Bucknell/Arkansas over Memphis, Seton Hall over Tennesee

Elite Eight - UConn, UNC, Nevada, OSU, Texas, LSU, Pitt, UCLA

Final Four - UConn, OSU, Texas, UCLA

Championship OSU over UCLA 71-63

As a disclaimer please note, I have never won any type of office pool nor been "in the money". So please do not bet money on my picks or change your brackets to mirror mine. That said, enjoy the madness. To start the day off right, please check out the vault for a classic post - just substitute Vermont with Texas A&M

Schlagen Spotlight

Ever wonder what it would be like to be featured on a website?

Well, I dont have to wonder anymore. Schlagen

Random Top 10 - Maddenings of March

Top Ten Things to expect this March Madness:

10) Haunted by my failed attempt to buld interest in a NIT pool last year, I will unsuccessfully try and organize a Women's NCAA pool this year.

9) Kansas vs Pittsburgh could be an ESPN insta-classic. Mark my words, this will be the most entertaining game of the weekend.

8) I would be remiss not to mention SU's situation on this list. I think that once again, they have a tough matchup in Texas A&M. A much different team than Vermont, and by different I mean blacker, I expect the McNamara fueled momentum to carry them past the first round but to fall short against an LSU team reminiscent of the Shaq- led Tigers many years back. On a side note, the same LSU team will beat Duke in the 3rd round.

7) At least one of the final four teams will be seeded 4 or higher. My pick this year, is the Nevada Wolfpack. Why? I don't really know, I have yet to see one single Nevada game this year, but when I was filling out my brackets they just kept winning. BC lost the last three years in the second round so that was an easy win, Villanova won't hit the threes every game and will go cold in the Sweet Sixteen matchup, and Florida will prove to be no match for Nick Fazekas. Hence, a Final Four birth.

6) Michigan will once again underachieve in the NIT Tournament. Then they will get high and have sex with many anonymous partners while experiencing mind expanding drugs in a consequence-free environment.

5) Not having the usual suspects of Cincinatti and Texas Tech to dub the "Guaranteed first round exit for a top seed" title. I am going to go ahead and award that moniker to the Bulldogs of Gonzaga. Seriously, do you think any other team in the top 4 seeds will drop out earlier than Morrison's gang? They almost lost to a 12-18 team last week. Now I know what you are saying, Xavier is "pure garbage" and the Oakland region is weak. You may also be saying "Hey EA, didn't you say last year that T. Tech would get upset last year and didn't they go on the Sweet 16?" Well you may be right, but I already wrote this long paragraph and I don't want to delete it and think of one more thing to add to an already thin list.

4) The over/under for EA tearing up his brackets will be Saturday 9:13 pm EST. Place your bets.

3) College hoops experts nation-wide will "go out on a limb" and pick UConn to beat Duke in the championship game.

2) At least one #1 seed will lose in the second round...my choice of course, is Memphis though Villanova could suprise us all with an early exit.

1) J.J and Shelden Williams will finish with zero national titles while drawing apt comparisons to Peyton Manning and Peyton Manning with a freakishly large foreheard. This just in: Duke sucks, they only have one national title since 1992. When I say "only" of course I understand that having a national title is very good. BUT all I am pointing out is that the current Duke team seems a lot better than they are. J.J. Redick will graduate without a national title which to me, seems like a bit of a disappointment, especially given the talent that he has had around him his whole career. I am looking forward to watching him crash and burn in the NBA where they don't call fouls everytime you fall to the ground and yelp. Prove me wrong J.J. On a side note, I wonder if he will pull a Jayson/Jay Williams and change his name to Jerome Jenkins Redick just to throw everyone off...worked well of J.W didn't it. (Too soon?)


Finally, EAs vs Bookies will be back and stronger than ever. Last year I went a respectable 34-30 which would put me up approximately 100 bucks had I been betting a C-note a game. We will see if I can't do better starting with the play-in game tonight.

Hampton (+3.5) over Monmouth - Here is a free gambling tip - Always bet on the team with the higher % of black students in their student body for the play-in game. Works every time.

NCAA Survivor 3/9/06

Wow. I can't believe it's been almost a month since I last updated this. My bad!

I love conference tournaments. I love to point out that March Madness has begun with the first buzzer beater of the first tiny conference championship. Win and keep playing. Lose and go home. Happily today, the Orange have been successful at that game. But don't worry; I'm not putting them back on the list. I was wrong about them. But how about Thad Matta, eh? When I started this column, they weren't even ranked. Now they're smelling a 1-seed. And have I mentioned they've got the top 1 or 2 (depending on who you ask) recruiting class coming in next year? Ohio State...welcome to elite college basketball. Don't underestimate Thad Matta.

When last we met...

Cream
UConn
Duke

The Thad Matta Tier
Ohio State

The Everybody Else Tier
Gonzaga
Michigan St
Villanova
West Virginia
Memphis
Illinois
Florida
Washington
Pitt
Texas


West Virginia
A month ago the Mountaineers were rockin' like a van to which you shouldn't go a-knockin'. Since them they've slipped. I get the feeling they've peaked at the wrong time, don't you? But that's not quite a convincing argument. Let's use this test: could Gansey conceivably be the best player for six tournament games? It's hard but not impossible to imagine.

This is getting tricky. I'm going to have to break things into tiers. West Virginia stays on, but in the lowest tier. I'm almost certainly being affected by a Big East bias... but SU wasn't the best team in the Big East in '03.

Michigan State
These guys cooled way off too, didn't they? But this team is even more talented and better coached than the Mountaineers! I can't take them off if I don't take West Virginia off.

Pittsburgh
Good team. Well-coached. But the talent just isn't there. Carl Krauser is good enough to lead them a ways, but not to a championship. See ya, Pitt.

Illinois
I feel the same way about Dee Brown as I do about Carl Krauser. Not quite great enough. Adios Illini.

North Carolina
Follow me here...Tyler Hansbrough is spectacular as a Freshman. Carmelo Anthony was spectacular as a Freshman. David Noel is a senior who is black and plays good defense. Kueth Duany was very a senior who was black and played very good defense. Josh Pace filled the box score. Many North Carolina players fill the box score!

OK, so the best comparison is the first one. Hansbrough keeps getting better and better. I think he can pull a Melo. Eric...anonymous Tar Heel fan...I finally believe the lads in the sky blue jerseys could win it all.

Washington
Ok, I haven't seen them play. But I just don't think the Pac-10 is any good this year. And Washington didn't even win the conference. If you're in a weak conference, you need to dominate it to be a title contender (see Gonzaga, Memphis). So no Pac-10 teams will have a shot this year.

Florida
Losing to unranked teams all over the place at this point in the year? Plus, Billy Donovan is a terrible coach. I think the Gators are a great pick...to lose in the first round!!! Ohhhh! Ohhhh! You've been played like a fiddle!

Texas
I don't know...I just don't know. I don't think anybody does. Who are these guys? You know what? I'm knocking them off. The problem is Aldridge. He's super-talented, but too inconsistent. He's already thinking about the NBA. Nope. Not Texas.

The Paul's Pick to Win it All Tier
UConn

The Second Most Likely to Win it All Tier
Duke
Villanova

The Thad Matta Tier
Ohio State

The Adam Morrison Goes Bonkers Tier
Gonzaga

The Why Not Us Tier
Memphis

The Carmelo Anthony Memorial Tier
North Carolina

The Only Still Listed Because West Virginia is Still Listed Tier
Michigan State

The Big East Bias Tier
West Virginia


So now nine left. I'll post once more, after the brackets come out. In the meantime, I'll be thinking about those bottom two... Hmmm...