Arrasian Foolishness - 16+ teams that won't win the title
After creating 4 equally terrible brackets today, breaking down into tears, then playing video games for 4 hours, I came to a realization.
2005 is going to be the first year where no one wins the NCAA tournament.
See, there are certain specific flaws with each team. I am going to list them for you now.
First of all, with a few popular exceptions, lets throw out all the 5 or lower seeds. Not going to happen this year. They're all even worse than the teams I'm about to touch on now.
Second, I'm going to do this in a power order based on which teams I see as most talented and dangerous.
1. UNC - Roy Williams is going to win a title. But it's going to have to be with an overachieving team at this point. He's blown too many chances with even better teams (remember Vaughn and Pierce and co?) for this to be the year.
2. UConn - I don't want to play them. But I have a sense that they peaked a little too early this year. And they're not quite as talented as their recent play might lead us to believe. Ben Gordan was too good for them to win without a PG like him.
3. Duke - K is the opposite of Williams. He can only win with top notch talent. This lovably scrappy team doesn't have it.
4. OK St - John Lucas is insane and erratic. Joey Graham is solid but a level below the Simien's, May's, and Warrick's of the world. Just not good enough to be the best.
5. Wake Forest - It's never good when ESPN says about their defense, "The Deacons haven't been the best at stopping opponents..."
6. Illinois - Since 84, no team has won the title with 1 or 0 losses. You have to be tested during the year. The Big 10 sucks. Great PGs make great frontcourts into champions. Illinois lacks a great frontcourt.
7. Kansas - Good enough to beat the top two teams on my list. Not good enough to avoid a silly loss somewhere (N. Iowa in round 2? NC St in round 3?), or to beat a red hot 03 cuse-like surprise team.
8. Washington - See my Illinois comment on needing a great frontcourt. Also see the Gonzaga game for evidence that Washington is probably not even the best team in their state. No defense: Loyola-Marymount put up 93 points on the Huskies!
9. Syracuse - Hak, Gerry, and Pace are sure things. But they need the sophomores. And the sophomores just aren't quite consistent enough to win 6 in a row.
10. Gonzaga - I drool at the potential of the Morrison-Turiaf frontcourt. But I've lost faith in the Zags in the tourney after two straight, sobering upsets. They aren't going to suddenly win the thing. They'll do better this year though.
11. Kentucky - Kentucky, and the SEC with them, are past their prime. Check out recent results. 2001: lost as 2 seed to 6-seed USC in sweet 16. 2003: lost as 1 seed to 3-seed Marquette in elite eight. 2004: lost as 1 seed to UAB in 2nd round.
12. Arizona - Great inside-outside combo; maybe the "SU" of the west sans the depth. Guard Stoudamire and win.
13. Louisville - They deserved a higher seed because of numbers, not because of talent. Despite always being hyped as a sleeper, Pitino has only won one game with these guys in two dances. C-USA does not produce champs. (Lucky they're moving to a conference that does.)
14. BC - I really liked BC until I remembered that Al Skinner is a tourney underachiever. (Here are the numbers on that.)
15. Oklahoma - Highest seed that I can't name one player on. Oh yeah, Bookout! He's white...
16. Florida - Ohio is knocking them out in the first round. MAC forever!!!!
17. Pitt - I'm sure this is just Big East bias, plus the fact that they beat us twice, but I think Pitt is really good. Krauser is DANGEROUS. Troutman is dirty and can D up any of these elite forwards. Taft has talent.
18. Villanova - Are we cooled on them yet? No? They might go on a run. But you can't win a title with a coach who's never won a tourney game, right? (Jay Wright is 0-2) That region is too tough.
19. Georgia Tech - You can't be that inconsistent during the season then expect to suddenly be able to win 6 in a row. Georgia Tech won 7 in a row to start the season (best teams they beat were Michigan and Georgia). They only won as many as 3 in a row once after that.
So there you go. No one is going to win. Tomorrow I'll tell you about my backup theory (if someone does win, who it will be. Plus my top 4 potential upsets.).
2005 is going to be the first year where no one wins the NCAA tournament.
See, there are certain specific flaws with each team. I am going to list them for you now.
First of all, with a few popular exceptions, lets throw out all the 5 or lower seeds. Not going to happen this year. They're all even worse than the teams I'm about to touch on now.
Second, I'm going to do this in a power order based on which teams I see as most talented and dangerous.
1. UNC - Roy Williams is going to win a title. But it's going to have to be with an overachieving team at this point. He's blown too many chances with even better teams (remember Vaughn and Pierce and co?) for this to be the year.
2. UConn - I don't want to play them. But I have a sense that they peaked a little too early this year. And they're not quite as talented as their recent play might lead us to believe. Ben Gordan was too good for them to win without a PG like him.
3. Duke - K is the opposite of Williams. He can only win with top notch talent. This lovably scrappy team doesn't have it.
4. OK St - John Lucas is insane and erratic. Joey Graham is solid but a level below the Simien's, May's, and Warrick's of the world. Just not good enough to be the best.
5. Wake Forest - It's never good when ESPN says about their defense, "The Deacons haven't been the best at stopping opponents..."
6. Illinois - Since 84, no team has won the title with 1 or 0 losses. You have to be tested during the year. The Big 10 sucks. Great PGs make great frontcourts into champions. Illinois lacks a great frontcourt.
7. Kansas - Good enough to beat the top two teams on my list. Not good enough to avoid a silly loss somewhere (N. Iowa in round 2? NC St in round 3?), or to beat a red hot 03 cuse-like surprise team.
8. Washington - See my Illinois comment on needing a great frontcourt. Also see the Gonzaga game for evidence that Washington is probably not even the best team in their state. No defense: Loyola-Marymount put up 93 points on the Huskies!
9. Syracuse - Hak, Gerry, and Pace are sure things. But they need the sophomores. And the sophomores just aren't quite consistent enough to win 6 in a row.
10. Gonzaga - I drool at the potential of the Morrison-Turiaf frontcourt. But I've lost faith in the Zags in the tourney after two straight, sobering upsets. They aren't going to suddenly win the thing. They'll do better this year though.
11. Kentucky - Kentucky, and the SEC with them, are past their prime. Check out recent results. 2001: lost as 2 seed to 6-seed USC in sweet 16. 2003: lost as 1 seed to 3-seed Marquette in elite eight. 2004: lost as 1 seed to UAB in 2nd round.
12. Arizona - Great inside-outside combo; maybe the "SU" of the west sans the depth. Guard Stoudamire and win.
13. Louisville - They deserved a higher seed because of numbers, not because of talent. Despite always being hyped as a sleeper, Pitino has only won one game with these guys in two dances. C-USA does not produce champs. (Lucky they're moving to a conference that does.)
14. BC - I really liked BC until I remembered that Al Skinner is a tourney underachiever. (Here are the numbers on that.)
15. Oklahoma - Highest seed that I can't name one player on. Oh yeah, Bookout! He's white...
16. Florida - Ohio is knocking them out in the first round. MAC forever!!!!
17. Pitt - I'm sure this is just Big East bias, plus the fact that they beat us twice, but I think Pitt is really good. Krauser is DANGEROUS. Troutman is dirty and can D up any of these elite forwards. Taft has talent.
18. Villanova - Are we cooled on them yet? No? They might go on a run. But you can't win a title with a coach who's never won a tourney game, right? (Jay Wright is 0-2) That region is too tough.
19. Georgia Tech - You can't be that inconsistent during the season then expect to suddenly be able to win 6 in a row. Georgia Tech won 7 in a row to start the season (best teams they beat were Michigan and Georgia). They only won as many as 3 in a row once after that.
So there you go. No one is going to win. Tomorrow I'll tell you about my backup theory (if someone does win, who it will be. Plus my top 4 potential upsets.).
posted by Prof. A at 11:56 p.m.
1 Comments:
I absolutely love the fact that you originally titled this post "Arrasian Foolishness - 16 teams that won't win the title" then when you realized that you had more than 16 teams on your list, you added the "+" instead of changing the number to 19....tremendously fluid transition. i love it.
me getting drunk = T minus 1.4 hours.
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